NEW POLL: MURTHA 45.5% RUSSELL 43.7% (PDF)…
NOTE: This poll was conducted by Dane & Associates and commissioned by Glen Meakem.
MORE: Malkin: John Murtha is running scared; new internal poll shows virtual dead heat…
NEW POLL: MURTHA 45.5% RUSSELL 43.7% (PDF)…
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28 Comments
Did I read that right? Over 3000 respondents? That’s a pretty broad, and impressive, sampling.
Obama is carrying that district? MexiCain is finished.
Well, certainly a sample size of 3700 (!) is impressive. Still, read the details–it’s a Robopoll. Also–it doesn’t say when the poll was actually conducted (!!!!) While many criticisms of *all* polls exist, they are particularly germane when it comes to Robopolls.
Yes, good numbers for Russell. Probably accurate, too, given how things have developed in that race. Still, if one is to get one’s hopes up for Russell’s chances, base them on something else that you know, not a Robopoll.
MexiCain is finished? Really?
First, look at a map of PA12 district, it is Gerrymandered to hell. I’m not sure you can say it is representative of PA at large.
Second, look at the party ID of the poll respondents, 67% Dem, 29% GOP. The fact this Poll shows Obama leading McCain 44/42 in a district with a 2:1 Dem advantage should be making Obama’s folks PANIC right now.
Party ID does not give much insight into Western PA. A huge number of people are registered Democrats from the 60’s that would never vote for a Democrat. I guess you call them Reagan Democrats or whatever. The district is probably 50/50 due to the gerrymandering pulling in every somewhat sizeable city and mill town that have some African Americans and connecting them through sparsely populated mountains with virtually no people at all.
Um, no. Bush carried Murtha’s district handily in 2004 AND STILL LOST the state. So if McAmnesty can’t even win this district, he’s done for. Remember, McAmnesty is going to do even worse in the Philly burbs than Bush did in 2004 (again, when Bush LOST the state).
Hey any commie will do at this point. Tell me anything you want, gimme more government and keep telling me how good it is. !!
Kerry carried the 12th district in 2004, 51-49 (similar to the statewide results). Gore won it in 2000, 55-44 (larger than Gore carried the state).
Actually, that’s a pretty good point.
Wonder how Obama is doing in Perzel’s district…
Handler – Here’s a cite for the 2004 results in PA-12, when Kerry topped Bush in the district 51.4% to 48.5%.
http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/PA-12?t=anon
If McCain is currently trailing in PA-12 by 1.7%, then he’s doing just a smidge better than Bush did in 2004 (by 1.2%). If this district was representative of the voter movement in the state overall (which is admittely unlikely) then McCain would be trailing Obama by 1.3% statewide – Bush lost the state in 2004 by 2.5% points.
So this is hardly bad news for McCain.
Here’s a cite for the election results in PA-12 in 2004, where Kerry topped Bush by 51.4% to 48.5%.
http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/PA-12?t=anon
So if this poll is correct and McCain is trailing Obama by 1.7% in the district, then McCain is ourperforming Bush by 1.2%. That’s hardly bad news for McCain
Westmoreland County:
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
100,087 56.0%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
77,774 43.5%
Fayette County
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
29,120 53.2%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
25,045 45.8%
Greene County
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
7,786 50.0%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
7,674 49.3%
Cambria County
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
34,048 50.8%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
32,591 48.7%
Washington County
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
48,225 50.1%
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
47,673 49.6%
Greene County
Candidate Votes Percent
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
7,786 50.0%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
7,674 49.3%
Armstrong County
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
18,925 60.9%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
12,025 38.7%
Indiana County
BUSH, GEORGE W. (REP)
20,254 55.9%
KERRY, JOHN F. (DEM)
15,831 43.7%
**Beyond this there is only a handful of precincts in Allegheny County that doesn’t include any of Pittsburgh.
A 3,000 respondent poll is impressive, but the costs of doing one of that size is likely more than this type of candidate could afford. My guess is this was a automated poll…they are not accurate. Remember a 12 year old could pick up the phone and press the buttons. Neither NRCC or DCCCC would accept these findings. I hope they are right, by the methodology is flawed. Also, what type of company puts out a memo like this with so many grammatical errors?
Does Handler not own a map, or is he too busy making making ethic slurs about Mexicans to look at one? Almost all the Republican-leaning parts of Westmoreland County are in Tim Murphy’s district, not Murtha’s, as are most of the Republican-leaning parts of Washington.
Nice effort, though, if this were a sixth-grade assignment cribbed the night before from the World Book Encyclopedia.
Whatever the poll numbers or methodology tehy sure have Murtha scared. I hope he goes down, it would nice to have a Republican Cingressman for a change.
You are a joke if you think listening all the county results justifies your take on Bush winning the district handily. The only county entirely in the district is Greene.
Same thing goes for Fayette. Western Fayette including Uniontown is in Murtha’s district. East of Uniontown, which is more like Somerset County, is in Shuster’s district.
I’m with you, bro.
And gimmee Bobby Casey over Santorum any day ’cause Ricky Santo didn’t endorse Toomey.
Toomey, of course, wouldn’t have been the Republican leader of the Senate Judiciary Committee and couldn’t have sheparded Roberts and Alito into The Supreme Court like Arlen (who I hate) did. I mean, I know it wasn’t planned or anything. Nobody ever thought about the ramifications back then. Of course not. Especially when it came to a guy with 24 years in the Senate who just also happened to be the Republican leader of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
And really — what’s a couple of conservative Supreme Court justices serving for life compared to TOOMEY, TOOMEY, TOOMEY, TOOMEY?!!!11!
When are we finally gonna hunt that Santorum guy down with pitchforks and torches? Gallows or crucifix?
GOLD STANDARD!!!! NO FIAT MONEYS!!!11!1!1 Gurgle.gargle.goober.
You said that he won the DISTRICT and as ‘proof’, you show results by COUNTY.
Is that your way of conceding that you are wrong?
“The Politician” – You are right on there, it would be nice to see a corrupt, mean spirited politician like Murtha go down!
I’m suprised Fayette County went to Kerry…
So, do you have any actual POINT to make, or are you just farting through your mouth?
So, do you have any actual POINT to make, or are you just farting through your mouth?
After reading all of the calm, well reasoned posts here I’ve turned into a True Believer. Want proof?
SAY NOES TO JUAN McAMNESTY!!!1!!11!!
See?
Oh, and I’m not the least bit angry at Barney Frank for tanking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because I expect that kind of behavior from Democrats.
Mmm…mmmm…that True Conservative Kool-Aid sure is yummy!
(pauses to wipe drool off of keyboard)
Seriously — the quantity and the level of vitriol I’ve seen here aimed at Santorum and Corbett is insane. Same thing with the calls for protectionism, isolationism and the gold standard. So occasionally I feel compelled to mock them.
When a poll has that huge a sample size, it’s actually usually a BAD sign for its credibility because large-scale robopolls are almost never scientifically sampled.
I think if you look at poll member there is reference to first poll and second poll and sampling. Polling has been notoriously inaccurate in this cycle but we shall see in a few days. There was a Tribune Review conventional poll that had same results and I have to think Murtha campaign is doing internal polling that confirms these three polls, Tribune Review and two robo polls. DCCC is putting money in which means it has done polling and see Murtha vulnerable. The DCCC money is confirmation that there is something to this.
I plan to come out to work a poll for Bill Russell, a super good guy, who was motivated because someone had to do this and no one else would or could. I just got my poll assignment New Derry Elementary School.
Polling is unreliable this cycle, which included the primary, too. Murtha is panicked, which is great news. He really is mean-spirited. The guy’s sweeping statements put some fine military people through hell and that’s unconscionable. No marine I know can stand Murtha claiming the same identity w/them. Whatever Murtha did as a younger man just isn’t relevant. He’s nasty, a big spender of other people’s money and he’d never leave willingly, so this IS the chance. Russell, by all accounts, is a stand-up man. I’m not sure I want Russell to win because I think he’ll be a good congressman or because I can’t stand Murtha. Truthfully, it’s probably more that Murtha’s so awful. Either way, this is a race worth working for. I’ve sent money twice, so I’m done talking about it. It would do WONDERS for PA to dump Murtha. So, let’s do it, already!!
When Bill Russell began, this race was Mission Impossible; it is now within the margin of error. I am a realist; miracles happen.
Please forward to your lists. The southwest media even Tribune Review, except Quinn and Rose, is biased toward Murtha as is Republican Chair Cambria County’s Rob Gleason. It is up to us; the Internet, Gutenberg without the overhead. Murtha has slurred the Haditha Marines and never retracted his statements; he slurred his own constituents and voters as Racists and Rednecks, who, even as I write, polling shows, are voting for Obama (Black) over McCain (white) as they voted for Lynn Swann (black) over white Ed Rendell ( white) in 2006 as I have posted previously and now….slurs on Bill Russell and the answer is below. As to the campaigning, I know that Bill went dark when he was reactivated for reserve duty. Not a word. And it what Murtha is saying is the worst he can say, then Bill Russell is very, very clean. Unlike Mr. Murtha of ABSCAM notoriety and that’s no slur, videotapes are available on the Net. Murtha is desperate and desperate people do desperate things. Bob Guzzardi, Bryn Mawr, Penna. Please forward to your lists.
From Bill Russell’s Campaign Manager Peg Luksik:
As I write this, Congressman Murtha has pulled out every stop in a desperate attempt to save his seat!
Democratic big guns and big money – from Bill Clinton to Nancy Pelosi to MoveOn.org are contributing time and money. He has lied about Bill Russell’s military record, his background, his wife, his FEC report, and his statements.
Thanks to your generosity, we have been able to stand against the lies in the media. Now we need to counter the lies in the district.
I know that this goes against every political letter you have ever received, but I am not asking you for money. I am asking you to TALK.
Share this letter with EVERY SINGLE PERSON that you know and ask them to share it with EVERY SINGLE PERSON that they know in this district. Use e-mail, hand deliveries, and telephone calls. But do not skip a single person, and ask each person you share with to do the same.
Why?
Because if there was ever a time when we regular people had a chance to stand up to the Washington power brokers – this is it.
Let’s start with Mr. Murtha’s lies.
FICTION – Murtha’s latest campaign ads claim that Republican challenger William Russell paid himself $185,000 with funds from his campaign.
FACT – The fact is, at no time during the campaign, has William Russell paid himself a salary of any kind. Throughout the campaign, Bill’s only access to campaign funds has been through a small travel expense account. At no time has Bill had access to any other campaign account. As Campaign Manager Peg Luksik said, “Even a cursory search of the campaign’s FEC reports online would reveal the total falsehood in Mr. Murtha’s ads. The people of western Pennsylvania deserve to be represented by someone who will not stoop to outright lying to hold off a strong challenge. It appears that the Congressman is not only insulting the values of his constituents, but their intelligence as well.”
Here is the site for looking at the FEC site. http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapHSCandDetail.do?detailType=cand&cand_id=H8PA12044&category=disH&stateName=PA&congressId=12
FICTION – Murtha claims that Bill Russell and his family live in Virginia, where his wife works and his children attend school.
FACT – Bill Russell, his wife Kasia and their two children Anna and Stasiu have a home and live in a Johnstown suburb. They actually live less than 2 miles from John Murtha. They bought their home before his retirement so it would be ready when Bill finished his military service. His children attend a local elementary school near their home. Bill’s only connection to Virginia was that the Pentagon was his last duty station (it was after he returned from Iraq), and the family rented a house in VA while he served there. To claim that the Russell’s do not live in the district is both factually incorrect, and an outright lie.
FICTION – Murtha says that Russell claims to be a graduate of West Point.
FACT – Bill Russell is not a graduate of West Point and never said he was. The official campaign website, http://www.russellbrigade.com says very clearly that Bill attended West Point, and later graduated from Louisiana State University where he received his officer commission. There was an endorsement letter from the Vet’s For Freedom organization which was posted on the Russell website that contained a sentence stating that Bill had graduated from West Point. The Vets for Freedom organization was immediately contacted about the error and submitted a revised endorsement with the correction, which was also posted to the website within one business day. The Russell campaign does not edit or redact any endorsement letters or other comments received from individuals or organizations.
The fact is, while at West Point, Bill contracted a severe case of mono, which prevented him from achieving the necessary GPA to continue his study there. So he enlisted in the Army, worked his way up through the ranks, and resumed his studies at LSU where he earned his degree, and was commissioned as an Army officer through the OCS program.
FICTION – Murtha says FISHER HOUSE charity does not endorse Russell.
FACT – Actually, Murtha did get a part of this one right. There was no endorsement by Fisher House, nor did Bill, his campaign or website claim any endorsement. The fact is, The Russell campaign held a BILL RUSSELL’S HOT DOG DAY event on Sunday October 19th with all the proceeds donated to FISHER HOUSE (over $10,000). At no time did the Russell campaign claim any endorsement, in fact a disclaimer was posted at http://www.russellbrigade.com specifically stating that as a charity, FISHER HOUSE does not endorse any candidate, and that no one should interpret the campaign’s support for them as the charity’s endorsement of us.
FICTION – Murtha claims Bill Russell was charged for illegal campaigning while in the Military.
FACT – Bill Russell was never charged with anything. He received an outstanding final review upon leaving the Army Reserves. Here is what his final review said. “LTC Russell’s outstanding performance during this rating period demonstrates his mature leadership. LTC Russell was asked to return to the OCAR G3 staff to work special projects that were crucial to the Army Reserve. His return to the G3 came during a critical time when staff turbulence was at its zenith with the summer rotation of full-time personnel. His continued efforts, literally to the last day of duty, ensured all projects working were a completely packaged and well tailored product to meet the needs of OCAR. LTC Russell specifically worked the OCAR Continuity of Operations Plan(COOP) and Force Protection development. He was instrumental in establishing working relationships with HQDA COOP planners as well as the Pentagon Force Protection Agency (PFPA) personnel. The end product of his efforts resulted in the increased force protection posture of the entire OCAR staff’. …. An excellent addition to this staff, LTC Russell has demonstrated that his potential for future assignments is unlimited. Promote ahead of peers. LTC Russell once again provided consistently exceptional performance ensuring mission accomplishment during his short tour of duty in the National Capital Region. LTC Russell’s contributions to the OCAR G3 staff were instrumental to successfully upgrading the readiness and force protection posture for the OCAR staff in the NCR. A consummate professional in every aspect, LTC Russell would be an outstanding Battalion Commander. Must select for promotion to colonel. A significant loss to the Army Reserve due to retirement…”
Now let’s move to the reality. First, John Murtha has begged for, and gotten, money from the most radical anti-military and anti-family groups and members of Congress in his desperate attempt to keep his seat. As we all know, not one of these folks gives money away for nothing. Second, John’s last minute race around the district is insulting. Until he got worried about keeping his seat, he would not respond to local constituent groups who had questions or concerns. He refused to participate in forums or debates in front of his constituents – believing that he should be re-elected without facing a single voter or answering a single question. He is taking credit for every grant that any business or non-profit earned through a competitive bid process, as if not one of the businesses or organizations in his district were good enough to compete fairly.
And now, he has declared that the sitting Commissioner of Washington County, Diane Irey, is a “ditz” on his web site press release entitled “Jack Murtha Targeted by Right Wing”. He didn’t even bother to get the date of the election right.
It’s time that Mr. Murtha and his radical supporters find out that here in western Pennsylvania, we know that our Marines are not murderers, our family values are not racist, our conservative women are not ditzes, and our veterans are not carpetbaggers.
That will only happen if we tell them so, with our votes, on November 4. Delivering those votes depends entirely on you – right now.
If you are coming to the rally at the Day’s Inn in New Stanton tomorrow from 2 to 5, I look forward to seeing you there.
God bless.
Peg Luksik
I hope that big fat lying traitor gets trounced. People from all ove the country are donating to his rivals campaign.