Specter won’t rule out run as an Independent…
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20 Comments
It's really kinda sad to see a guy with such lust for power. You'd think that at some point a person would want to hang it up and spend his twilight years with his family.
Power truly does corrupt.
Well spoken Rich, and as Moribus said about the amount of signatures he'd have to get, it would be great to see one of these clowns become a victim of one of their own protection schemes.
Well said Moribus and ditto Rich! It's amazing to what lengths these career politicians will go to keep their power. For someone who is against term limits, Specter and those like him are the perfect ammunition for those who support term limits….just amazing…..
Sometimes I wonder if such lust on the part of politicians is related to the need to keep their misdeeds under wrap.
We all know that Specter has 'investigated' himself and declared himself innocent of wrong doing more than once and we also know that the power that they hold shields them for a very long time (think Fumo and a near endless list of long time power brokers).
How many earmarks of his are tainted? How many jobs has he given out that were special favors or even ghost jobs? Has he enriched himself at our expense over the years?
Maybe it it just ego and the deluded belief that he simply belongs in power. That notion alone, as much as any wrong doing, is reason enough to throw him to the curb any way we can.
I say let the sorry clown run as an Independent. It might make it easier for Toomey to win the general.
I also think this would make the race interesting. Yes, the union says they'd back him…but what if he seemed vulnerable and a conservative seemed likely to win? What percent would Specter get – and how would it break down? Would he draw more GOP or more Dems?
It isn't going to happen, but it is fun to speculate…
Okay, see, there is now no question in my mind that Specter is hearing through the grapevine that any GOP endorsement is on the ropes (which would be amazing, given the historic lack of intestinal fortitude on the part of the state GOP committee).
Having said that, Specter running as an Independent would be the kiss of death for him.
First, he has to decide BEFORE the GOP primary whether to run as an Independent; he can't pull a Leiberman and run in the Fall after losing in the primary because PA law doesn't allow it.
Second, he will have to secure a beastly amount of signatures, and that will require "volunteers" who are actual residents of the counties in which they secure signatures.
Third, it will kill his fundraising as traditional donors are historically reluctant to give money to Independent bids.
This will be fun to watch!
To run as an Indie, Specter also cannot file petitions to run as an R or D (and then withdraw), which pushes his decision time back to whatever the petition date is, not 30 days before the primary.
The deadline for indie petitions (this year) is August 3. That should give you an idea how long Arlen would have to gather sigs.
Watching him squirm, priceless.
I'd rather see his wife get back into the pie baking business. Those Joan Specter pies were unbelievable.
Would be so good for Pennsylvania if Specter and Murtha are BOTH booted out in '10.
Yeah, but my point is that he has to decide by the time R & D petitions are filed, 10 or so weeks before the primary. I have little doubt that he could get the sigs with plenty of RINO bootlickers willing to help him.
See I think it is plausible under the following circumstance: Let's say its two months before the filing deadline and Specter appears really vulnerable. A so so Democrat is in the field, but it would be a fight for Specter to win the nomination. Specter, with union support, unfiles as a Republican, but decides to run as an Independent. Specter with union support probably could get the necessary signatures in time to run as an Independent. With union support and any fundraising in the bank before running, he would have a decent chunk of change and ground game.
So fastforward now to the General: Toomey, Specter, and some Democrat… lets say Schwartz or Scapiro. Three SEPTA candidates duking it out.
This leads to the following breakdown:
Specter gets the union vote. He also gets some Republicans and moderate Democrats. He also does well among older voters. Strength will be in the intersuburbs of Philadelphia and unionized areas.
Toomey gets most of the Republicans and some of the Independents. Wins the Pittsburgh suburbs, wins most of the Philly burbs by a plurality, and everywhere that is typically Republican.
The Democrat gets the traditional Democrats: urban voters and some union voters. They also gets some of the educated Barack Obama types. Dukes it out with Specter over unions and loses, but beats him in the intersuburbs.
This scenario really relies on two things. 1) The Democrat running for Senate. 2) Who wins the Governor's race.
1) This scenario really works if its a SEPA Democrat like Schwartz, Scapiro or the National Constitution Center guy whose running. Likely or not, it will be a SEPA Democrat. The scenario is predicate on one of these Democrats with regional name ID, but not state name ID.
2) If the Republican is cruising to victory, they would drag Toomey across the finish line possibly. Many straight ticket voters vote for top of the ticket. This hurts Specter as he is alone. Some like to trash Corbett, but he might be the best hope in such a situation based on his ability to win pretty much everywhere. Someone like Meehan will be big over in SEPA where vote splitting will be more likely.
Percentages:
Toomey: 35-45%
Specter: 25-40%
Democrat: 25-40%
I think your numbers for Specter are optomistic, primarily because most people don't deviate from their voting habits if they are party voters. And If the GOP finally gets its act together and gins up the base, then Toomey sails to a win because the media will turn the race into another Toomey/Specter thing, leaving the Democrat in the cold.
Max for Specter – 15%.
along with several others including Kajorski.
I could make my loser wish list, but I would probably crash Chris's servers.
If Specter runs as an Independent, they will definitely mount a candidate; they'll smell blood in the water and will try and take that seat for themselves.
What if Specter has union support? That really complicates things for the Democrats.
I suspect the unions need Specter a lot. He is really their only pawn left to claim they are bipartisan. So to save face, they might need to defend him.
Who wants to run in a three way against Specter and Toomey is the question? Such a campaign would be nuts to pull off.
Their best option is to go with a Democrat from SEPA, but that poses risk. If the person is too liberal, Blue Collar Democrats might go to Specter. If they are not liberal enough on something like abortion, SEPA Democrats might go to Specter.
If the Democrats nominate someone like Wagner or a pro-life Democrat, it gets really interesting. It really becomes Specter Toomey race in SEPA with the Democrat pulling the rear. Your more socially liberal Democrats might go to Specter.
I would really like to see the Democrats nominate someone who is at least nominally pro-life because it would really cause a feud to erupt between the affluent Democrats and the blue collar Democrats. We could get a Democratic Party feud going plus rid ourselves of Specter.
I think Specter gets a lot more Democratic crossover than we suspect because the Democrats are still not going to mount a really serious challenger.
I also think the unions will do anything for him if he votes for card check. That vote will be the sign if he intends to fight Toomey or do some other game.