New PA Poll: Specter 42% Toomey 36%, Ridge 39% Specter 38%…
PEG Political Action Committee
116 Pine Street, Suite 201, Harrisburg, PA 17101
Phone: 717-238-1764 Fax: 717-238-0751
www.pabusinesscouncil.org
For Immediate Release
Monday May 4, 2009
Contact: David W. Patti
Office: 717-238-1764
Cell: 717-329-7207
RIDGE SPECTER A STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT; TOOMEY TRAILS
(Harrisburg) Former Governor Tom Ridge and US Senator Arlen Specter are neck-and-neck across Pennsylvania in an election poll conducted for a state business group. Conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey, while potentially viable, trails Specter in most regions of the state.
PEG PAC, Pennsylvania’s oldest pro-business political action committee and the affiliated PAC of the Pennsylvania Business Council (PBC), today announced the results of a statewide poll that tested whether a well known conservative Republican or a well known right-of-center Republican can best challenge incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter who recently joined the Democrat Party.
In an automated poll of 1,019 households of registered voters taken at the end of last week, announced PBC President and CEO David W. Patti, “PEG PAC found that if the election for US Senate were held today, Tom Ridge could defeat Arlen Specter by a margin of 39 percent to 38 percent. The poll also shows Specter would defeat Pat Toomey by a margin of 42 percent to 36 percent.” The number of undecided voters in the survey is over 20 percent cautioned Patti, and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent, so the association leader said the results are not conclusive.
According to Patti, the survey conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research and sponsored by the PEG PAC was undertaken to give the Pennsylvania and national business communities “a better sense of the new political landscape and a sense of our options.” PEG PAC does not make endorsements in federal elections, said Patti, but does have a long history of providing its members and the public with information and insight regarding campaigns.
James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling said the survey means, “Arlen Specter – not surprisingly – is a strong candidate despite the party switch. He is not, however, invincible. A right-of-center Republican who is well liked in Southeastern Pennsylvania – Tom Ridge or someone very much like him – could win.”
“What jumps out at me,” said Patti “is that Senator Specter doesn’t get over 50 percent against either candidate. That’s not good for a long-term incumbent no matter what political party he affiliates with.”
Patti said he finds the area break-downs in the survey “most useful and instructive.” “Governor Tom Ridge – despite not having campaigned or worked in the state for several years – is a viable opponent to Arlen Specter in every area of the state except the City of Philadelphia,” said Patti. “In the Philadelphia suburbs, Tom Ridge matches Arlen Specter. Across the state, Tom Ridge pulls more votes from Democrats and Independents, than Pat Toomey,” reported Patti.
In the so-called “Republican-T” of central and northern Pennsylvania, reported Patti, “Arlen Specter surprisingly defeats Pat Toomey 40 percent to 38 percent; while Tom Ridge defeats Arlen Specter 43 percent to 34 percent. It seems that Tom Ridge captures the Republican base better than Pat Toomey.”
More details:
· In the Specter/Toomey match-up, Specter is winning support from Democrats by a 50 percent margin while Toomey is winning support from Republicans by a 46 percent margin.
· In the Specter/Ridge match-up, Specter is winning from Democrats by a 41 percent margin while Ridge is winning support from Republicans by a 50 percent margin.
· In the Philadelphia suburbs of Bucks, Delaware, Chester and Montgomery, in the Specter/Toomey match-up the results are Specter 43 percent to Toomey 38 percent with 21 percent undecided.
· By contrast, Specter loses votes in the suburban southeast counties when faced by Ridge who garners 38 percent to Specter’s 37 percent with 25 percent undecided.
· The majority of Philadelphians indicate they would vote for hometown politician Arlen Specter regardless of his opponent, but Ridge does slightly better than Toomey in Philadelphia where the high number of voters magnifies the impact.
According to information available from the Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections as of April 26, 2009, 51.2 percent of Pennsylvania voters are registered as Democrats, 37.0 percent are registered as Republicans and 11.8 percent are registered as Independents or with a “third party.” Of the 1,019 surveys completed, 51 percent of respondents were Democrats, 42 percent were Republicans, and 7 percent were registered with “third parties” or as Independents.
“Senator Specter has nearly a 30 year history of working with the business community,” said Patti. “On some issues, he has been a good voice for competition and free enterprise, but on some issues he has been at odds with the business community position,” explained Patti. “We don’t know how his positions and voting might change now that he has joined the Democrat Party. We believe, however, that the Obama Administration and Senate Democrat Leadership will expect Senator Specter to provide them with important cloture votes on critical and far-reaching issues. Our members and our Washington, DC –based allies want to know their political options.”
Patti said the survey was not conducted on behalf of Toomey or Ridge, nor had they been consulted. Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik had both announced Primary Election challenges to Senator Specter. Pat Toomey has better statewide name ID and is perceived as the epitome of a “conservative.” Tom Ridge has considerably higher statewide name ID than other right-of-center or moderate Republicans and might be Pennsylvania’s epitome of that political viewpoint, explained Patti. “We thought Toomey and Ridge represented the best conceptual tests of the ability of a Republican candidate to defeat Democrat Arlen Specter.”
PEG PAC supports candidates for Pennsylvania state office with financial contributions, campaign consulting, and grassroots action. PEG PAC seeks to elect candidates for state office who offer the best capacity to create and sustain a better Pennsylvania. PEG PAC supports candidates who are best for the business community without regard to political party membership.
36 Comments
PEG supports hacks, I think, is commonly known. RidgeBush will be a loser as will SpecterBush. Toomey has spent last ten years working for Constitutional Limtied Government and Free Markets. Tom Ridge has been either joined at the hip with GW Bush or lobbying for zillions in defense Earmarks from his manion in Maryland while retaining a phony voting address in Penna. The voters don't know the negatives but they will BushBigSpending with Ridge at Homeland Security set the stage for Obama even big spending.
Toomey losing in the T? This poll is garbage.
Is it just me, or is it amateur hour around here? When will some genius poll Toomey vs Ridge, and Sestak vs Specter?
Sounds like good news to me. At this point in Santorum's reelection he was 20 points back…and stayed there.
"A right-of-center Republican who is well liked in Southeastern Pennsylvania – Tom Ridge or someone very much like him – could win.”
Ridge "right of center"? What has this guy been smokin'? Pro-abort, pro-war, biggest GOP spender in state history, father of the pension increases about to bankrupt the state, Bush buddy – what the heck do you have to do to get "left of center"?
Bob G is right. If PEG could simply pick a candidate it would be Ridge. PEG is a bunch of business types who are big government suck ups and corporate welfare queens.
It has been suggested that PEG does not support hacks, but, some allege, is a hack, in and of itself. I think that before they merged, they had just a few members, mostly those relying on legislative favors while appearing to be under a vastly larger umbrella. It has been said that Pennsylvanians for Effective Government would more accurately name themselves if they were to remove the word "Effective" from their name.
PEG, nice, the ones who had Santorum and Casey running neck and neck.
Ridge can win
Toomey cannot
Toomey lost some counties and barely edged Specter in different counties in the T in 04 primary. It's not garbage at all. Tommey lost that election over Specter running very well in the T, all things considered.
Just for the record, I did vote for Toomey in 04. I'm not a Specter hack.
Once again, Ridge = Specter so the base will NOT vote for him so the dem wins. Even if Ridge would win that's just another democrat lite. No thanks. Country before party. No more Rinos with their liberal views. You guys had the ultimate in so called moderates this last pres. election and look where that wound up. We need to contrast the liberals not try to be like them. We need someone with core values and can passionately articulate them.
And once again moderate suburb voters will vote for Arlen over a Toomey
I am a Republican before Conservative and McCain lost due to imagery something Republicans need to wake up on.
Then you are a party hack with apparently no core values. I am an independent now, no longer republican. My name is given to no party. I believe in the Constitution and I find moderates and liberals just believe in maintaining power for their respective party irregardless of the constitution. "McCain lost to imagery…" Yeh, it was called being a democrat lite. He offered no real contrast to Barry (BHO) Soeterro. Republicans will continue to lose until they get back to the core values of personal responsibility, less taxes, less spending and considering right vs wrong, etc.
Your and Indy? BFD. You don't get a meaningful vote in primaries. That's not supporting the consituation. That's just shooting yourself in the shoot and then bragging that you hit what you were aiming at.
I will vote in the primary. You can figure that one out. "Shoot myself in the shoot…" Good one.
RINO's have Ridge.
20 10 30 Out.
Give us Pat Toomey or give us a third party.
Principle comes first because politics as usual with Tom Ridge cannot stand.
Amen!
The real story here is that a five-term incumbent is only at 42% — which is terrible.
It's a different world today where people prefer solutions over politics. More are paying attention now than before. Solutions = Toomey. Should be a hoot.
Look at the numbers again, dude. It's a statistical dead-heat.
This poll – like every other one that has come out in the last week – is flawed in the same area: it is a generic poll and does not breakdown Republican primary voters from general election voters. Heck, we don't even know if they did a poll of registered voters of likely voters. These are critical differences.
This poll – like the rest – has one purpose: to intimidate conservatives back into the fold of believing that only a RINO can win PA. Not only is that falacious but totally discounts the fact that the very reason Specter jumped was because his own polling showed he could not win the GOP primary. General election polls are useless if the primary yields different results.
The very fact that none of these polls has had a head-to-head match up between Sestak and Toomey or Sestak and Ridge clearly shows the bias of the polsters.
Wait until Ridge's Congressional record is exposed – his anti-Reagan votes, his pro-abortion votes, his siding with Democrats more often then Specter did.
Wait until Ridge's gubernatorial record is exposed – tax increases, bloated spending, pay raises, pension increases.
Do you honestly think that rank-and-file Republicans are going to swallow more of this Specteresque behavior in the GOP primary?
Based on what I hear from the "loud" minority all we have to do as Conservatives is to kill a few babies and we'll be back in the mix. What a horrible testimonial to what we've become as a society that these are the issues that we use to divide one another. We've really become disgusting and no one but us will reverse this terrible trend.
THANK YOU!!!
Win what? If he can't get through the primary, he ain't goin' no where…
He proved you do not need the base twice. Saying Ridge somehow cannot win a general election is a joke. His problem will be the primary.
Welcome to modern America where culture trumps all.
Insisting Ridge can win the general without the base is the joke.
Chalk it up to what it is……….a "Hack-Attack" (c) Bill Adams
How do you explain 1994 and 1998? He had a substantial third party challenge and still won.
Slow down, there, Speed Racer!
If memory serves correct Ridge did not receive more than 50% of the popular vote in 1994; while he received more than 50% of the vote in 1998, the Democrats ran a no-name against him (remember Ivan Itkin?).
So, for all intents and purposes, Ridge has never had a real head-to-head race in either statewide race.
This is not 1994 or 1998 when most of us were good little republicans voting for him because he had an R after his name. We have been pushed around and taken for granted a whole lot since then and the base will no longer support these guys that only recognize us and treat us as useful idiots during an election. He is so liberal he might as well join Arlen in the dem party. No thanks. Country before party.
True but it is not like Specter is not damaged goods.
Ridge retains high favorables as all the polls show. Again take them with a grain of salt, but there is a lot of fondness for the 1990s in the electorate.
You obviously have more faith in the electorate than I do. Most people in this state do not have this base victim mentality.
Everybody keeps saying RIdge is popular – on what basis?
More importantly, Ridge has been on the shelf long enough to allow people to forget his record. Do you honestly think Team Toomey or people like me are going to allow Ridge to skate through a primary?
Once Ridge's record is put on display for the GOP electorate to see, they will not select him as their candidate.
Again, everyone is focused on the General Election; if he cannot survive the primary, all of this discussion is academic.
toomey all the way. specter is only out for himself-he has no morals,no ideas(unless they are from scottish law) and jumped ship twice just get elected. specter cannot be trusted.
Спасибо) есть что то интересное))