Susquehanna Poll: Specter 46% Toomey 37%. 62% of Dems want Specter to face primary…
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James Lee, President For Immediate Release Contact: Jim Lee (717) 233-8850
In Early 2010 Match-Ups Pennsylvanians Show Real Ticket-Splitting: Corbett Leads Onorato for Governor while Specter Leads Toomey; Most Democrats Also Say Specter Should Face a Primary Contest to Earn the Democratic Nomination (Harrisburg, PA: June 1, 2009) – Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. today released the results of an independent statewide poll testing voter attitudes towards the 2010 elections for both governor and U.S. Senate. The live poll, conducted from our telephone call center in Harrisburg, was conducted May 26th-30th with 700 registered voters, all of whom have past vote history in at least one of the last four general elections or better from 2005 to 2008. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level. The top line results are included with this release. In the 2010 race for U.S. Senate, by a 63/28 margin most Democrats believe Specter should face a challenge from one or more other Democrats in the 2010 Democratic primary in order to secure the nomination (9% are undecided). This suggests most Democrats want Specter to earn his rightful place as the Democratic nominee despite comments by Democratic Party officials and leaders that Specter should be given a free ride in the primary.
In a potential general election match-up between Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat Toomey, Specter leads Toomey by a 46/37 margin (13% are undecided and 4% would support someone else). Among Republicans, Toomey leads Specter 69/21 while among Democrats Specter leads Toomey by a 65/14 margin. Among “super voter” or those who voted in 3 or 4 of the last 4 general elections the race is a near toss-up with Specter leading by a narrow 42/39 margin, while among those who voted in only 1 or 2 of the last 4 elections Specter holds a commanding 50/36 lead. This means lower turnout favors the Republican nominee in this contest, while higher turnout favors the Democrat. From a regional perspective, Toomey leads in the conservative “T”/Central region (54/28), the Northeast/Lehigh Valley (51/38) and
the South Central/Harrisburg market (45/39). Specter leads in the Southwest (45/35), the Southeast (51/31), Allegheny County (44/32) and Philadelphia (81/10).
In the 2010 race for governor, GOP Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Democrat Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato by a 34/29 margin with 32% undecided; 4% would vote for neither candidate or support someone else. Among Republicans, Corbett leads Onorato by a margin of 65/3 (25% undecided), while Onorato leads Corbett 50/12 among Democrats (35% undecided). Among “super voters”, or those who voted in 3 or 4 of the last four general elections, Corbett has a 9-point, 36/27 lead over Onorato compared to a near dead heat (or 33/32 Corbett lead) among those who only voted in 1 or 2 of the last 4 general elections. As with the U.S. Senate race, this means Corbett’s chances are improved with normal gubernatorial-type turnout as opposed to the higher turnout you get in presidential years which usually favors Democrat candidates. More good news for Corbett is that he holds a narrow 28/27 lead over Onorato in the Democratic-trending Southeast counties of Chester, Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware Counties, an area he won last year in his bid for reelection as attorney general despite Obama’s 15-point margin in this same region. Good news for Onorato in this poll is that he leads Corbett 51/29 in the Pittsburgh media market, an area both candidates call home. Given the fact that other polls show Corbett with higher name ID a 5-point margin for Corbett is also good news. Ultimately, the 32% undecided shows the race is still up for grabs depending on what happens in next year in terms of which party benefits from the political environment at the time. For purposes of this poll only the Corbett/Onorato match-up was chosen to include because of the early momentum both candidates have generated within their respective political parties.
604 North Third Street, 1
st Floor
Harrisburg, PA 17101
Phone: (717) 233-8850
Fax: (717) 233-8842
Cell Phone: (717) 215-1122
Email: james@susquehannapolling.com
www.susquehannapolling.com
James Lee, President
INTRODUCTION:
Good morning, afternoon/evening. I am calling from Susquehanna Polling and Research, a public opinion research firm based in Harrisburg. Today we are conducting a survey of attitudes and opinions concerning some important issues facing Pennsylvania today. May we have a few minutes of your time to complete the survey?
Great, thank you…
Q1. Do you think things in Pennsylvania are going in the right direction, or do you think things have gotten on the wrong track?
1. Right direction 257 37%
2. Wrong track 331 47%
3. Undecided 112 16%
Q2. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else?
1. Republican 280 40%
2. Democrat 364 52%
3. Independent/other 56 08%
(ASK Q3 DEMOCRATS ONLY)
Thinking way ahead to the Democratic Primary Election for US Senate in 2010…
Q3. As you may know, US Senator Arlen Specter recently switched from Republican to Democrat. Should Arlen Specter be the Democratic nominee for the 2010 election for US Senate or should he face a challenge from one or more other Democrats in the primary?
[N=364]
1. Specter should be nominee 101 28%
2. Specter should face challenge 230 63%
3. Undecided 32 09%
Thinking way ahead to the General Election in 2010…
Q4. If the election for governor were being held today would you vote for Tom Corbett, the Republican candidate, or Dan Onorato (Honor-otto), the Democrat candidate?
1. Corbett 241 34%
2. Onorato 205 29%
3. None/other 28 04%
4. Undecided 225 32%
Q5. If the General Election for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Arlen Specter, the Democrat, or Pat Toomey, the Republican?
1. Specter 323 46%
2. Toomey 262 37%
3. None/other 26 04%
4. Undecided 88 13%
I have a few more questions for demographic purposes and then we’ll be through…
Q6. What is your approximate age according to the following brackets: 18-29, 30-44, 45-59 or 60 and over?
1. 18-29 42 06%
2. 30-44 116 17%
3. 45-59 281 40%
4. 60+ 241 34%
5. Refuse 20 03%
Q7. Do you consider yourself to be conservative or liberal when thinking about your social, economic and political views?
1. Conservative 327 47%
2. Liberal 180 26%
3. Moderate 154 22%
4. Undecided 19 03%
5. Refuse 20 03%
THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THE SURVEY. HAVE A GOOD DAY.
Gender:
1. Male 336 48%
2. Female 364 52%
Area:
35 (05%) 1.
Northwest [Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Venango, Warren, Forest]
77 (11%) 2.
Southwest [Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette,
Westmoreland, Indiana, Armstrong, Butler]
84 (12%) 3.
The “T”/Central [Jefferson, Elk, McKean, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield,
Centre, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Blair,
Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Sullivan, Lycoming,
Clinton, Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, Mifflin,
Juniata]
84 (12%) 4.
Northeast/Lehigh Valley [Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Schuylkill,
Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, Pike, Wayne]
119 (17%) 5.
South Central [Perry, Cumberland, Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon,
Dauphin, Berks]
147 (21%) 6.
Southeast [Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks]
77 (11%) 7.
Allegheny County
77 (11%) 8.
Philadelphia
The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.70%
———–
The margin of error for a sample size of 364 is +/-5.14%
