Became state’s longest serving Congressman on Saturday…
Singel, Wozniak, Pyle, Reed mentioned as possible candidates…
John Murtha dies…
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88 Comments
Reminder to all:
De mortuis nil nisi bonum
Shocking. I'm sorry to hear this news. My condolences to his family.
Had to look it up to see what wonderfully sound advice you've provided: "Say nothing but good about the dead."
While I disagreed with him on many issues, Murtha was an institution unto himself: the last of the Scots-Irish machine Democrats.
Why the reminder?
If those are the rules, let me go on record that I have absolutely nothing to say.
Condolences to his family, but I agree with you Ray. There's another old cleche, you can't pick your relatives, but you can pick your friends.
The 12th District is so huge, that no Ds with name recognition come to mind as a front-runner. Depending on what happens in November, the 12th District might be carved up during redistricting.
I can't believe that Chris thinks someone posting on this site would post something negative about the dead……../sarc
I'm inclined to think WesternPA is right; this will now be the Congressional district that is carved up / eliminated. Most of the seats on that side of the Susquehanna River can "grow" a little towards this seat.
– Mike
Requiescat in pace
The 12th was the most likely to be dismantled before. This insures the 12th will disappear.
I suspect someone from Fayette or Cambria County will be the Democratic nominee and they will likely win the special election. Democrats substantially outnumber Republicans in the district, control the vast majority of local and legislative offices and seeing the Democrats will be killing each other for Senate and Governor. All of these things play in their favor.
Hope Guzzardi understands Latin
That's one of the Democrat's problems. They think of themselves as invincible and did not groom the next guy so now they stand a very good chance of having the 12th District re-jiggered which may be a huge loss. While you do have those residents who were happy to receive Murtha pork, there were just as many who were not pleased about it. This may be their chance to change it up.
Actually I disagree:
Senator Wozniak (http://www.senator-wozniak.com/)
If I were a betting man, he will be the Dem. nominee
Wozniak REALLY enjoys being in the senate, I can't imagin him wanted to give up what he sees as a really sweet gig he has in Harrisburg for the much higher stress levels of Washington.
The district is 63% Democratic and 29% Republican. Of those 60 and over (more likely to vote in a special election) it is 70% Democratic and only 27% Republican. If I was the Democratic candidate I would tell DC to have Obama stay the hell out of PA for the next 3 months. If somehow a Republican wins this seat then every single Senate seat is up for grabs in Novemeber and not a single Democratic Senator is safe.
McCain carried the district in 08. Stay in Delco where you belong.
Stress level aside, Wozniak's not up until 2012. He would risk nothing if he were the Dem nominee in a special election.
If he loses he goes back to Harrisburg and continues as a State Senator. If he wins, he could potentially be a Congressman for many years to come (assuming the seat is not redistricted out or made more Republican)
Now is this a 'safe' Dem seat? We will see in the coming months…
May the Congressman rest in peace. Didn’t care for his policies, but a good man.
Does this change the Republican Candidate? Do more folks enter the race? Who are the state house and senate members in that seat?
Didn’t McCain and Bush do well in that seat?
Comparing to Scott Brown's win in Massachusetts, of 4.1 million registered MA voters, 51.2% are Independents, 37.1% are Democrats, and 11.4% are Republicans:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-01-1...
Special election, or does Rendell appoint? When was Murtha up for re-election?
Murtha was a Irish Catholic, not of Scots-Irish decent.
See:
http://www.jimsgenealogy.com/johnmurtha.htm
Thanks. Murtha was unusual then for the majority of Jacksonian Democrats as most were Protestants.
I lived in Greene County for over 10 years.
McCain and Bush both did well there, but they are the only Republicans to do well. Remember the vast majority of offices at the state and local level are Democrats.
Correct Chris, but Bush lost the portion in the district. Not all of the county is in the district. The reason the district is not Republican is the Mon-Valley portion of the district. The Mon Valley is arguably the most Democratic territory outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
But that is the key difference the number of Independents. MA is 51% independent voters not locked to any one party. They tend to vote Democratic but can switch back. For some reason the voters in the 12th Congressional District always vote for Democrats for Congress. Scott Brown did not really need one single Democrat vote. All he needed was all of the Republicans and 80% of the Independents. If someone in the 12th got every Independent voter and every Republican voter they would still lose 63% to 37%. That is the problem.
Demographically, PA-12 compares the best to MA-1, which Scott Brown lost to Coakley.
PA-12 also did not have a strong showing for the GOP judicial slate in 2009. The GOP performed poorly in Allegheny, Greene, Fayette and Cambira counties, which are the bulk of the district. The GOP slate did win in Indiana, Washington, Westmoreland and Somerset counties, but PA-12 contains the more Democratic wards of those counties. This is especially the case in Washington and Westmoreland.
Murtha was not a Jacksonian Democrat. He was an economic liberal, cultural conservative – something most people in PA are familiar with (mayb not so much in Delaware County).
Special election likely in May. PA-12 is up in November like everyone else.
You are probably right about the Mon Valley. Pretty sure DeWeese's district is something like 4-1 Dem in registration.
Wozniak makes sense as the most likely candidate. He might not make the jump because this district is likely to disappear soon.
I do hope the family finds comfort in their loss.
Yet, I find myself thinking of those Marines who were called cold-blooded killers…and how they never received their apology.
Caddywompass – Murtha was up for reelection at the same time EVERY OTHER US CONGRESSMAN or WOMAN is up for reelection – every 2 years! (Which means he would have been up in November).
DeWeese's district is roughly 4 to 1 Democrat.
Fayette County is 68% Democrat, 24% Republican. That number is slightly misleading because PA-12 contains the most Democratic parts of Fayette County. Shuster's half of the county is generally more Republican. So it might actually be closer to 5 to 1. Greene County is 67% Democrat and 26% Republican. Basically the Greene/Fayette portion of PA-12 is 4.5 to 1.
I am using the term used by political scientists to describe Appalachian Democrats, Jacksonian Democrats. The term has origins in the populism found among many Appalachian Democrats over the last several decades.
Great points "Guest" the question is what about Kasunic?
That's right…same district. Good thinking.
An open seat means an open political season with insiders of both parties manipulating to get their candidate elected.
It is sad to see the passing of a true patriot who served his nation, Commonwealth, and constituents well for many years. Unlike so many, he understood that dissent and patriotism go hand in hand.
Condolences to his family.
McCain won in Fayette County, a portion (including the county seat) of which was "represented" by Murtha. This seat will be won by Bill Russell, a Johnstown Republican who came out of nowhere to nearly upset the Murtha apple cart last go-round. The anti-Murtha/anti-Progressive movement in this area is growing at a rapid clip as people continue to be disillusioned with where our Democrat-controlled county, state and nation are headed.
Yes, it is always sad when a true patriot who served his nation, commonwealth and constituents well passes.
Thank heavens that hasn't happened lately.
Glad to see you signed up! +1 J_Cooley!
Ryan and Patrick, noticed you made the important distinction between Scotch-Irish (who are actually Scots from Scythia) and the Irish, who are from Ireland.
Any ideas why the area South of Pittsburgh, from the Mon Valley to Fayette and Green Counties, is so much poorer, and so much more Democratic, than the Counties to the North of Pgh?
So much for class, Mr. Cooley.
While I am sorry to hear of Mr. Murtha's passing, I can't say that I will miss his politics or the scandels he brought to the Commonwealth.
How Chris phrased it sounds far better, but I too ran to Google to figure out what it meant.
Karma has a funny of taking care of that stuff. What goes around comes around. Disparage our soldiers like he did time and time again and something is bound to happen to ya. I look at this more like justice. He didn't apologize for those outrageous slanderous remarks and got his in the end.
Really? This county went heavily for the Democrats 3 months ago in the local elections. No Republican won a countywide office beyond Jury Commission which one Republican has to be elected to. Fayette County voted straight Democrat for Supreme, Superior and Commonwealth Court when the vast majority of the counties including the SEPA and Pittsburgh suburban counties went Republican. It gets even more pathetic when you look at the county and municipal races. Most of the county resembles a one party state.
Considering how almost every other county in the state swung very strong to the Republicans, Fayette County's stand with the Democrats is even more telling of the fundamental mindset of the people. I suspect Fayette County was the Democrats best county in the state behind Philadelphia County in the November judicial elections.
cash flow
The Mon Valley is a demographic oddity. First, they are far less German. Greene County is one of the least German counties in the state. Second, the Mon Valley contains far more Eastern European. It was the last region of the state to be settled.
Interesting enough, my ancestors from the region are of German and English ancestry. They never got involved in mining and served as mine and state police.
I believe Bush carried Cambria county (Johnstown's county) in 2004 (or was it 2000)?
As one of the beneficiaries of Mr. Murtha's "service to his constituents" I can tell you that I have no compunction against calling it like it is. Frankly, I don't need a shiny new airport that nobody uses, or a spanking new national park that nobody visits, at the expense of my country or at my young daughter's expense (since the pork that paid for those projects came from borrowed funds she'll be obliged to pay back). I've already asked that those who believe pray for Mr. Murtha's soul. That's as generous as I'm prepared to be regarding this particular embodiment of corruption personified…."class" be damned.
Well said Guest.
1. I'll stick to the Latin point on Murth
2. This is very much a winnable district. Like many parts in this state and area these have long been Democrat strongholds at state and local level we are just starting to see at federal level them turn into Republican ( w. virg, tenn, kentucky etc) even if they still vote Democrat at state and local level
3. who are state reps and state senators for republicans? any mayors?
We can win this all republican has to do is hammer away on health care bill this would not be a district prone to it.
The last thing we need is some pay jacking State Rep. Look to Tim Burns, right on issues, speaks well, can raise the money, and looks good.
I've spoken with both Burns and also with Bill Russell. I think, in my opinion, Burns is better "spoken", so to speak…but he's not going to be able to overcome Russell. From a money standpoint alone I think it will be difficult, but let's remember that Russell ran really well against Murtha last go-round and even though he doesn't have the "polish" that a professional politician has, his program is good. He definitely seems to say the right things. No matter which one it is, I see this seat going to the Republicans.
The marines who Murtha accused of civilian deaths in Iraq have now gotten their revenge!!
Murtha betrayed our great marine soldiers fighting to keep us free and safe.
He was a poor example to our nation. I won't miss him!!
GO MARINES!!!!
I wonder if he had any regrets at the end. I'll bet he did. Maybe he can now finally lead by an example.
State Rep Dave Reed would be an excellent candidate for us ( though we could lose house seat if he won congress race)
Russell got his tailpipe kicked in. Lost by 17%. Nice guy but lost cause.
You say that as though it were a good thing. Do you believe that any congressman should be able to gain and wield that much power?
How do you call a man that corrupt and contemptible 'a good man'?
What did you think of Ted Kennedy? Another 'good man'?
If you believe him to be a true patriot who served well, you are truly bizarre.
From what I have read, at least some of his family and most of his friends were birds of the same feather.
He belonged in jail. Next!
Sadly, that was actually a good result against Murtha, who got spooked late in the campaign and put on a dog-and-pony show of epic proportions just to make sure he finished Russell off. At one point Murtha even went on local TV and told his supporters that he'd underestimated Russell and waited too long to start campaigning–which he had–and basically begged his machine to get active. I think he saw some polling and money numbers that worried him–and that was before the Tea Party movement started bringing money in from all over the country. I think you'll see anyone with Tea Party creds get a serious boost in this race. Not sure whether that will be Burns or Russell, yet…but this could be NY23 all over again (with a better result, if the state/national GOP stays the Hell out of it until the people have a chance to speak).
Fayette County has been controlled by a Democrat machine for my entire lifetime, complete with one titular "head" who absolutely runs the county. This together with an absolutely ineffective, virtually inactive Republican party makes it near impossible to get any kind of change made. However, a Republican ran very well in a race that shouldn't have been close (DeHaas vs. Vernon judge race), which is a hopeful sign, and McCain beat Obama here despite heavy union pressure. The disgust level with Obama is huge, and a growing disgust with our Democrat county commissioners is helping to turn the tide. Also, our Tea Party organization is finally putting pressure on the Republican people down here to lead or get out of the way, and we're taking precinct seats in this upcoming election, so I suspect you'll see some pleasant surprises in the coming months.
Lastly, the most important thing to remember in Fayette County is that these are "Grandfather" Democrats. Most of the people here vote with the (D) because Daddy did. When you talk to them they are more Republican than Republicans! They just don't realize the Democrat party today is far from the Democrat party of yesterday…but they're learning. Now that they're seeing how the party has been hijacked, I wouldn't expect to see them remaining faithful for much longer. For example, the treasurer of our Tea Party organization is a Democrat who was just elected to his borough council!
It's a changing place, much like the country…only now, the people are beginning to demand that those who are supposed to represent us actually DO SO. Kinda cool to see, really.
If by "begging his base" you mean put a million dollars in street money then yes. Russell never had a chance. The only poll that matters is the one on election day. If Russell kept Murtha down to 52% then he would be a serious contender. Instead But Murtha took 60% of the vote and beat him by 17% points. Game over for Russell.
Do the people of Fayette County oppose socialism? The evidence points to the area being in love with social programs. Most of the county is on government health care and financial assistance. The schools are the worst outside of Philadelphia. Unions are still viewed positively. A majority of kids receive school lunch benefits. It is consistently the poorest county based on per capita income and also has the highest poverty rate outside of Philadelphia. If the campaign was about values issues, I say the Republicans have a chance. If this campaign gets about economics, the people of Fayette County will be the loyal to their big government loving roots.
Russell did only marginally better than Irey in 2006 and Russell spent far more.
Completely agree. Dave Reed would be perfect since hes a young hard working rep. He could run with the message of bringing young and fresh ideas to washington and categorize Wozniak (who I believe the dems will nominate) as a politics as usual, tax increaser and big government supporter.
The official position of the United States military (under Bush-Cheney, no less) was that what happed in that incident was murder. The lowest ranking marine enlisted men had their charges dropped because they were following orders, but the one who gave the order still faced charges. Murtha was simply repeating the prosecution's position.
Why are they poor? The use of coal in manufacturing ended, eliminating the reason most of those towns in the Mon Valley existed. The business owners always treated the workers badly, so they organized to get better wages and conditions, and thus became Democrats. The counties north of Pgh ( I assume you mean Butler, Clarion, etc, and not Beaver and Lawrence) never became industrialized in the way Washington, Fayette and Greene did, and thus had less population. Much of the poverty is the legacy of the collapse of manufacturing in this area, which was linked to coal. Those left behind are still Democrats, and have nowhere else to turn (as they don't make enough money to qualify for any GOP tax cuts).
Of course he is unknown there but I think he could run an affective campaign and he comes off very well in person
Does anyone above think there will be a time in their lifetime when a Republican will win Bob Brady or Chaka Fattah's Congressional seat? I mean because that is the odds that a Republican is up against in this district. Do the math.
I can do match
Murtha district went for Kerry with 51% and then went for McCain
Now Brady and Fattah district had to each go for Obama with over 60% and probably over 70% in Fattah seat
the districts are not even comparable
The political scientists are painting with too broad a brush. In the South, sure – Jacksonian may apply.
But in parts of West Virginia and especially SWPA, the continued affinity for the Democratic party is mostly due to labor-side economic outlook, and a lingering cultural tie due to shared non-anglo-saxon immigrant heritage, compounded by historic GOP hostility to Catholic and Orthodox christians.
Most of his district is NOT in the 12th CD. He would be totally unknown in the Mon Valley portions as well.
But Bush cut their income taxes Patrick and in fact eliminated income taxes for millions of working poor. But of course he gets no credit for that.
While I appreciate the efforts of all to be gracious with the death of Murtha, I cannot help but wonder: When does the 'mourning' end and the critique of Murtha's accomplishments/failures begin?
For how long must truth remain silent?
So now who is going to use John Murtha Airport?
Excellent question. Two flights to DC every day with empty planes except for the crew.
Funny thing. My dad was in WWII and my older brother was in Nam. Neither of them turned out to be money grubbing, criminal politicians. In fact, both went on to be honest men who contributed to besides themselves.
If not for Tip O'Neal, big Jack would have gone down in the ABSCAM mess in the late 70's. Just putting things into perspective. That's all.
Let me put a few basic premises back into perspective for NorthPennResident. First, Congressman Murtha was not wealthy at all. In fact, he was one of the least wealthy members of Congress. Second, his name was Tip O'Neill. Use the Internet if you don't know how to spell the name of a major historical figure. Finally, ABSCAM was in the 1980s, not the 1970s. Read a book, or take high school civics again. Just putting things into perspective. That's all.
The district is very competitive. It is the only Congressional district in the U.S. to have voted for Kerry (by approx. 8,000 votes) and McCain (by slightly less than 1,000 votes). However, top-tier candidates may steer clear of this race, as the district likely will be eliminated in the 2011-12 redistricting. Pennsylvania will lose 1 seat in reapportionment, the 12th District Member will be extremely junior, the area is losing a larger portion of its population than any other PA district, and the 12th District can be sliced and placed into several surrounding districts. Republicans (if for no other reason than it guarantees the lost seat will be a traditionally Democratic seat) and Democrats in Harrisburg support this concept.
If you want to hammer someone on getting the spelling of a name right, then please be advised that it was Thomas Phillip "Tip" O'Neill, Jr.
Just putting things into perspective…
Yo! Rocky. Excuse me for a misspelled name. That does not diminish the fact that he was a crook in a district that he ran like a banana republic. I you had bothered to check it would have been revealed that many of the crimes associated with the ABSCAM investigation occurred in the late 70's. The prosecutions occurred in the early 80's.
Murtha was still let off the hook because of a phone call from O'Neill. And because he rolled on a couple of his co-conspirators. A real profile in courage.
I have an idea, Sly. Why don't you go out and buy a clue. Then you can come on here and correct the spelling of others. Just keepin' it real. Clown.