Murtha’s old seat now a ‘tossup’, worries Dems…
Murtha’s old seat now a ‘tossup’, worries Dems…
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34 Comments
These people are the experts? The GOP wanted Murtha alive, not dead. he was the boogeyman they could have beaten. Now the Dem will be some popular state rep with no baggage and ties to DC< which was the Rs only hope of picking up a district that delivers for Democrats. So much for the experts.
Not exactly oozing compassion over Murtha’s passing, are they?
Sabato: "obviously an idiot who failed math"…
70% of voters over 60 in this district are registered Democrats. The only way a Republican wins this district is if one of the sitting Democrat State Senators in that area runs as a Republican and the Democrats fail to field a candidate…
I wonder if someone from Code Pink will run in his dis-honor
I find the take of national figures to be comical. They look at the Presidential race and see it was close, but they fail to look at the state and local numbers in the district. PA-12 is roughly 3 to 1 Democrat in terms of registration and consistently votes Democrat at the municipal, county, state and federal levels. Based on these factors, PA-12 is the most Democratic district outside of Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.
I just had an 88 year old Democrat wheeled into our Fayette County (represented by Murtha) Tea Party meeting who would beg to differ.
The fact is the Democrats in this area are realizing their party has been hijacked and that those in control no longer represent the values of the people of this district (and their fathers/grandfathers from whom they inherited the Democrat brand). I won't be so brazen as to guarantee a win by a non-Democrat, but I WILL guarantee that whoever is elected won't be in the mold of John Murtha, or of today's "progressive" Democrat. You'll see a no-earmark, no-spending, no-taxing platform overcome the decades of corruption and mismanagement that has been the policy-making hallmark for this area…of that much I'm certain.
Decades of union influence (which is waning) and an utterly ineffective GOP in this area (Fayette County) has contributed to that. I'm heartened by the fact that people here seem to have grown tired of regressing while the rest of the world moves forward, and are prepared to resist those policies which have kept us in perpetual depression even while the rest of the country was in an economic boom. It's no coincidence that with the liberal Democrats in constant power around here, it seems the only industries that have experienced a constant growth are subsidized housing, government handouts and the (increasingly violent) drug trade. People are only willing to support so much for so long; you might be surprised to see what kind of change is occurring within the electorate here. You'll get a taste of it in the coming weeks, months and through 2012.
Ryan
Look at W Virginia, Tenn, and Kentucky which are in same local and have same Democrat history
W Virginia went for Bush in 04 and Capito won open house seat in WV 02 and yet they elect Democrats ( Byrd, Mollohan, Rockerfeller and every statewide and local official a democrat?)
They are still democrats at state and local level but they are turning into republicans at federal level and once a open seat happens republicans can win it just like we have seen in WV, Kentucky, and Tenn
Funny, we find it comical that Delco is Republican on paper. Yet you guys have trouble electing a Republican dog catcher there.
UM, did you miss what just happened in Massachusetts?
Really? Last time I checked Republicans controlled almost every local and state office in the county.
Yea right. The electorate went to the polls last November and went straight Democrat in Fayette County. With the exception of a few counties, the Republicans cleaned the Democrats clock, but Fayette County went Democrat.
So is that 88 year old willing to end the generational theft known as Social Insecurity and Medifraud?
Republicans hold all 20 common plea seats and every single row office, and all 5 county council seats. There is not one single elected democrat in a row office in delaware county.
No this year.
Too many people are too mad at politicians in general; and don't count out the fury of the Tea Party folks.
2008 Obama 54.7% McCain 44.3% Sestack 60.6% Williams 39.9% Leach 54.3% Rogers 45.7%
2006 Casey 64.7 % Santorum 38.8% Rendell 73.9% Swann 26.1% Sestack 55.9% Weldon 44.1%
And let's not forget Kerry 57.1% over Bush 42.3% and Gore 54.4% over Bush 42.7%
Ok, you can win the dog catchers races. It's the upballot you can't win. My mistake.
Hard to mourn a weasel…
You're right Tim. That becuase all Delco voters put the Democrats in the State House, Senate, U.S. House, U.S. Senate and White House.
There is a Democrat elected countywide in DelCo. The Republicans hold the vast majority of State Rep and State Senate seats in DelCo.
In addition, every Republican judicial candidate won in DelCo in 2009.
Really? The vast majority of the State House and State Senate seats in DelCo are held by Republicans. The Democrats are practically righting off PA-7 and its going to return its natural holder the Republicans who have held it all by 6 times since the Civil War.
Fayette County by comparison has pretty much been in the pockets of the Democrats since the Civil War.
The problem is with you giving lectures. Delco wouldn't exist without the Philly. Which is a tax rathole the that's 1000x bigger then Fayette.
It should be a layup with Meehan, if you guys lost that, it'd be beyond hope over there.
Big whoop 2009 was a Republican year.
Really? Then why didn't the Republicans do well in Fayette or Greene Counties?
Actually the Republicans have traditionally won most if not all judicial races in DelCo. Presidential races have historically been the problem.
Actually in terms of median household income, Fayette County is the poorest in the state. Philadelphia is the 7th poorest in the state when it comes to median household income.
The suburbs more than counterbalance any negative fiscal burden caused by Philadelphia County. Remember the 4 suburban counties are in the top 200 in average income. That is something rural people largely do not comprehend. Subrubia more than counterbalances the impacts of the urban slums they surround.
What counterbalances the poverty of Fayette County? Greene County???
Their doing better over time. Rome wasn't burnt in a day.
We will win this seat
I just hope the process is done in best way it can be ( seeing nominee will be chosen) and we can be unified
I am all for State Rep Dave Reed
and so will 2010
Chris
so being so damn pessimistic. Bush nearly won district and McCain did. Neither got anywhere close in Mass and Brown won
All Republican has to run on is: Taxes, ObamaCare, Cap and Trade, and Terrorists being tried in civilian courts instead of military
Turnout will be there for Republicans too
haha, it's a deal. I will try and be less pessimistic
Honestly that's my two cents, (I see the Dems keeping the seat)
But…You are correct, the seat is certainly winnable!
Something tells me whoever the Dem. nominee is, they won't be pro-cap and trade, socially liberal, etc
If they nominate someone who takes positions like those it obviously won't play well in that district!
I agree it leans Democrat. While McCain did well, the Republicans even as of late have done horribly for every office except President in this district. I think we would be better at looking at 1994 to see what areas went Republican and what went Democrat.
I put this district as the 8th most likely for the Republicans to take in this state. Based on voter registration, the Republican performance in November 2009 and the party alignment of the local officeholders, PA-13 might be more competitive. The Republicans have more seats in PA-13 at the state and local levels, the registration gap is actually close, the Republican judicial candidates did well in 2009 and suburban areas seem to be swinging hard against Obama (see NJ, MA and VA races).
Winnable for the Republicans, but the district is arguably the most Democratic district at the local and state level outside Philadelphia and Allegheny counties for several reasons:
1) The registration advantage is extremely unbalanced.
2) The Republicans are non-existent at the local or state level. Even in the counties where Republicans exist in the district, the portion of the district in PA-12 is usually Democratic.
3) The Republicans polled very poorly in this district in the November 2009 judicial races, but the Republicans did well pretty much everywhere else. In fact, there was a 20 percent swing in the Republican favor in most of the Philly suburban counties while there was a 20 percent swing away from the Republicans in PA-12 if you compare the judicial numbers to the presidential numbers.
4) The big government thing does not bother people in the district. I lived in Greene County for a number of years. It is welfareland. Most people are on government healthcare already along with other forms of assistance. Why would they be upset about a big government liberal when they are living on such programs?
5) If you compare this to the MA Special Election, PA-12 is like MA-1 in terms of demographics. Brown lost MA-1 pretty handily to Coakley. Brown's strength was in the suburbs, larger towns and exurbs not the rural areas. Based on that alone, I would say the revolt against Obama is not strongest in rural areas but the suburbs where people's financial interests are not as good as they were under Bush.
The Democrat nominee will be pro-gun, pro-life, pro-earmarks, pro-coal and pro-big government programs. The same people this district sends to Harrisburg.
The suburbs wouldn't exist without Philly. That doesn't you can't seem to get into your head. Without Philadelphia, Delco, would be fields. Green and Fayette help provide the natural resources that the rest of the State needs.
I don't know…there are a heck of a lot more Democrat voters in this district. Comparing this district to the Scott Brown situation, there are nowhere near the number of registered Independent voters that there were in MA (it's not even close)
Remember, if this special election is held on primary day there is going to be a hot primary between Onorato, Wagner, Hoeffel, Doherty, and possibly Williams. The big Specter Sestak battle will also be taking place that day. This will be the political backdrop with a heavy D turnout in that district.
While this open seat will probably make the district more competitive than its ever been, my money is on 'leans Democrat'.
I attended prep school in Mass so I know area
Mass has hardly any social conservatives ( in great substance) this district is socially conservative
We can win this with right candidate, message!
No more negative comments its driving me nuts